Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Racism
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Daily Pfennig 9/15/2009
"...Today, marks the 1-year anniversary of the Lehman Bros. collapse... What have we learned from that meltdown? Not a darn thing! We're still spending like there's no tomorrow, and we're still willing to bail out some and not others... In the past year though, Gold is up 30%...
Sanction Joe Wilson
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0909/27151.html
"...House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif) called Wilson’s remark “shockingly disrespectful and unacceptable.” “While it is true that the President called his opponents liars, this does not grant others the right to respond in kind. The President represents the entire nation. He speaks for every American. Mr. Wilson’s small, red-neck constituency doesn’t give him the right to challenge the President.” (I wonder if she really said this - MBC)
Monday, September 14, 2009
Daily Pfennig 9-14-2009
"...news that pushed yen higher came from the U.S. where the Administration announced a tariff on Chinese tires... Passenger and light truck tires to be exact... This really heats up the trade protectionism between the U.S. and China, folks...
... Back in 2001, the then President Bush, slapped a tariff on Chinese steel...Big Shift in the strong dollar trend that existed then... Now, we have this tariff... What do you think this will do to U.S. / China relations? YIKES!
... If the U.S. Trade Commission was really concerned about the shipments of tires to the U.S. and what they felt to be a displacing of thousands of jobs, why then didn't the Trade Commission work with the U.S. tire companies and work out a price adjustment? Ahhh, grasshopper, that would be too difficult to do! It's far easier to slap tariffs on the one country that has bought your debt year after year, without batting an eye...
... So, could this new tariff be the juice that moves the dollar to the next big leg down?... These things need to work themselves through... Just like in 2001, it took several months before the dollar really began a strong downward trend... But, keep this in the memory bank...
... And China, feeling that they had to retaliate... Announced a probe of U.S. auto, and chicken imports... If you get this going really heated, it could spread throughout the globe, and push all the hard work to get out of the global recession into the dumpster! This is plain stupid! And our Gov't should have known better!
...first bank casualty from the Commercial Real Estate meltdown... Corus Bank in Chicago, is the second largest bank to fail this year, and will cost the government between $1.5 Billion and $2.4 Billion in losses, depending on the performance of the bank's outstanding loans...
...this time every year, economists meet in Davos, Switzerland, and normally you can get a few thoughts that remind everyone about "what's really going on in the world"...
...Stephen Roach, had this to say... "The American consumer is dead and this is a wake up call for the Chinese & Asian export industry."
...guy from China that's a "think tank" guy... His name is Yu Yongding, and he had this to say... "I have tremendous doubts about US households to finance the budget deficit." and... "Why are people still so confident in the strength of the dollar? It's a myth!"
... Remember... the IMF wanting to issue their own "global currency"? Well... Zhu Min Bank of China had this to say... "IMF should provide stable reserve currency regardless of format. Very volatile reserve currency is difficult for Asia."
The Wall Street Journal had a good story regarding the weak dollar this weekend...WSJ... "The dollar could continue its weeklong decline this week, especially if data on U.S. retail sales show improvement. The dollar hit a nine-month low last week against the euro and a seven-month low against the yen. Investors are moving into higher-yielding currencies such as the yen as the global economic picture brightens."
Saturday, September 12, 2009
Daily Pfenning - 9/11/2009
"...Trade Deficit for July, which registered its biggest increase in more than 10 years in July, as surging purchases of oil caused an unprecedented jump in imports. The deficit widened by 16.3%, its largest percentage increase since February 1999, to $31.96 Billion. That's up from the $27.49 Billion Deficit figure in June...
Monthly Budget Statement, read Deficit! Is forecast to print a whopping addition to our already eye-popping Budget Deficit, of $140 Billion! Recall that we all thought last month's deficit of $111 Billion was bad... Well, we'll see your $111 Billion, and raise you $29 Billion!
That's just shameful folks... We, as a country, continue to spend what we don't have, and print money, and do all the stupid things that got us to this place to begin with! Pursuing the same stupid policy of excessive spending, debt expansion and monetary inflation can only compound the problems that prevent the required corrections. Doubling the money supply didn’t work, and neither will any amount of money supply!
I read this somewhere, forgive me but I don't recall where, and it stuck in my head... "Buying up the bad debt of privileged institutions and dumping worthless assets on the American people is morally wrong and economically futile."...
...The Chinese see what we're doing folks... And they don't like it one iota!...
I know, that I've talked about this so many times before that you're tired of hearing about it... But, China is the gate keeper folks... We were stupid enough to get to this place, with all our deficit spending, and now... As my mother used to say... You made your bed, now lay in it!
...Gold is back above $1,000!
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Texas Talk - Government Solutions Lack Understanding
http://www.house.gov/htbin/blog_inc?BLOG,tx14_paul,blog,999,All,Item%20not%20found,ID=090908_3511,TEMPLATE=postingdetail.shtml
"...Throwing money around and creating more government programs is both simplistic and damaging to the economy. Of course, the administration claims that we would have been much worse off without these efforts. You can’t improve this situation by adding to our mountain of public debt for the benefit of big banks and other special interests. The American people know this. When will Washington learn?...
...plans for healthcare reform – or health insurance reform - are becoming more and more unpopular as details are examined. But because of all the alarmist rhetoric, politicians in Washington feel obligated to pass something, even if it doesn’t help. Rarely are liberty and prosperity at greater risk than when politicians feel they must “do something”. It is frightening to watch Washington toy with our healthcare purely for political reasons...
...all of these problems and their wrong-headed solutions come from one greater problem - which is not understanding the reasons that we are here. The economy is in bad shape because of too much government intervention producing a myriad of unintended consequences and perverse incentives. Healthcare is broken because the doctor-patient relationship has been broken down by hyper regulation and too much government interference. Afghanistan is a mess because they ignored the mission approved by Congress - to seek out those who attacked us on 9/11. They have instead gotten sidetracked with nebulous interventionist tasks such as promoting democracy and nation building...
The Two Reasons it’s Time to Short U.S. Stocks
http://www.moneymorning.com/2009/09/09/short-u.s.-stocks./
"...What most experts see as a strengthening U.S. rebound, I see as an increasingly dangerous “false dawn” – for these two key reasons:
- An overly expansive monetary policy that’s almost certain to spawn inflation.
- And a record-level budget deficit that will cause interest rates to spike, crimping economic growth.
...federal government has made $11.6 trillion in financing commitments, many of which will saddle us with debt for generations – some of it forever. Outlays of that magnitude in a $14 trillion economy are bound to have lasting implications: Think of the consumer who has a series of maxxed-out credit cards – he’ll make the minimum payments, but the actual balance will never get paid down.
And the foundation for this financial fiasco was actually constructed several years ago.
After the bursting of the 1996-2000 “dot-com” bubble, the U.S. Federal Reserve re-inflated the money supply. That caused stocks to resume their upward march, and as we now know, also inflated a housing bubble of such enormous size that it caused a general financial-system crash when that real estate bubble burst in 2007-08.
This time around, the Fed has been even more expansive. The benchmark Federal Funds Rate was 1.0% in 2002-04. This time it is 0.25%. What’s more, this time around we’ve had a $2 trillion expansion of the Fed balance sheet, a doubling of the monetary base and $300 billion worth of direct central bank purchases of government debt. Given this orgy of Fed expansionism, it’s likely that the onset of inflation – whether it’s in consumer prices or asset prices – will be correspondingly worse. In fact, we’re already seeing that gold prices are once again making a run at their all-time high. And crude oil hovers at about $70 per barrel, a level that would have been unimaginable before 2004.
...U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke says he will tighten monetary policy in good time. But why should we believe him? If he tries to tighten significantly, he will incur the wrath of the Obama administration and the Democrats in Congress.
Even back during the 2001-04 time frame – when there was an administration in place that claimed to believe in monetary stringency – the Fed didn’t tighten. Bernanke himself was among the most aggressive opponents of tightening. Back in 2002, in fact, when inflation was running at a perfectly respectable 2%, Bernanke actually spun myths about the imminent onset of “deflation.”
Given what we know, it seems that if the current economic bounce shows even the slightest signs of faltering, Bernanke won’t tighten – he’ll pump even more money into the U.S. financial system. Rest assured that the administration, Congress, and much of the media will be cheering his move.
Borrow Now, Hurt Later
If an overly expansive monetary policy was the only problem we faced, it might not be so bad. Unfortunately, there’s more.
Lots more.
Unlike in 2002 – in fact, unlike any other time in U.S. history – this country now has a budget deficit in excess of 10% of gross domestic product (GDP). For fiscal 2009, that was forgivable: We’ve had a major recession, and a shattering financial crisis, which the federal government has tried to battle with aggressive bailout programs.
Here’s the problem, however: The projected deficit remains above 10% of GDP for fiscal 2010, even though no additional bailouts are contemplated and the Obama administration is projecting a modest-but-steady economic recovery.
The result is harder to predict – this country hasn’t travelled down this particular path before. This strategy bears some resemblance to the position Japan found itself in during its so-called “Lost Decade” of the 1990s. But even Japan’s deficit never reached this 10% threshold.
In Japan, the effect seems to have been the gradual abandonment of small business finance, and the resulting starvation of the most critical factor in economic growth – entrepreneurship.
The small-business sector creates most of the new jobs in the U.S. economy. But in a challenging environment, it’s easy to see why this sector gets overlooked. Without political connections or large contracts to hand out, the small-business sector ends up being last in line in the financing queue when the economy faces strong headwinds. Why should banks or other people lend to small businesses when the U.S. government bond market stands as such as huge, safe parking place for their cash?
Interest rates will also become an issue. With the inflationary pressures we expect to see from the overly expansive monetary policy we’ve described, long-term interest rates are likely going to rise anyway. As was the case in Japan’s decade-long malaise, these forces will combine to spark high default rates in the banking system, low or zero economic growth, and a general downward trend in the stock market.
All of this will make it tough for small businesses to obtain the cash they need to grow, meaning this key job-creation engine will have to sputter along.
It’s still early in the game, and there are many factors to consider, so the future economic picture remains a bit murky right now. But my guess is that the bubble in asset prices will be largely confined to commodities, that economic growth after this current initial burst will relapse, and that U.S. stocks will prove to be the same generally unattractive investment that they were in 1970s – the era of the so-called “Nifty Fifty.” If the stock market bubble gets even more exuberant from here, the relapse will be correspondingly more painful.
Profitable Pockets
Despite this dour backdrop, three things are worth remembering:
- First, all U.S. stocks are not created equal. Although I’m saying it’s time to short U.S. stocks, and I see tough times ahead for the key indices, there will always be individual stocks worth consideration, such as the “Alpha Bulldog” stocks I highlight in the Permanent Wealth Investor service.
- Second, the best way to play this looming downdraft – either as a direct profit opportunity or as a way of hedging your current portfolio – is through the use of what I like to call “Stage 3″ investments. An example of one such investment is long-dated “put” options on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, which trade on the Chicago Board Options Exchange. If you buy these options when they are way “out of the money” with a strike price far below the current price, in a real bear market (like that of 2007-09), you will see them really zoom up in value as the S&P drops down closer to the strike price, or possibly even falls below it.
- And third, understand that my pessimism about the U.S. market doesn’t apply to every other market around the world. While the monetary problems are more or less global, the budget-deficit problems are not. For instance, you might want to consider investments in Japan, where a recent election should spawn the kind of economic changes that will benefit savvy investors. Germany, too, looks to have avoided the contagion of “stimulitus,” which is why its economy is now viewed as one of the healthiest in Europe. Consider the iShares exchange-traded fund (ETF) entry for each of those two markets: The iShares MSCI Japan Index Fund (NYSE: EWJ) and the iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund (NYSE: EWG). They each warrant a look.
