Monday, September 14, 2009

Daily Pfennig 9-14-2009

http://www.dailypfennig.com/

"...news that pushed yen higher came from the U.S. where the Administration announced a tariff on Chinese tires... Passenger and light truck tires to be exact... This really heats up the trade protectionism between the U.S. and China, folks...

... Back in 2001, the then President Bush, slapped a tariff on Chinese steel...Big Shift in the strong dollar trend that existed then... Now, we have this tariff... What do you think this will do to U.S. / China relations? YIKES!

... If the U.S. Trade Commission was really concerned about the shipments of tires to the U.S. and what they felt to be a displacing of thousands of jobs, why then didn't the Trade Commission work with the U.S. tire companies and work out a price adjustment? Ahhh, grasshopper, that would be too difficult to do! It's far easier to slap tariffs on the one country that has bought your debt year after year, without batting an eye...

... So, could this new tariff be the juice that moves the dollar to the next big leg down?... These things need to work themselves through... Just like in 2001, it took several months before the dollar really began a strong downward trend... But, keep this in the memory bank...

... And China, feeling that they had to retaliate... Announced a probe of U.S. auto, and chicken imports... If you get this going really heated, it could spread throughout the globe, and push all the hard work to get out of the global recession into the dumpster! This is plain stupid! And our Gov't should have known better!

...first bank casualty from the Commercial Real Estate meltdown... Corus Bank in Chicago, is the second largest bank to fail this year, and will cost the government between $1.5 Billion and $2.4 Billion in losses, depending on the performance of the bank's outstanding loans...

...
this time every year, economists meet in Davos, Switzerland, and normally you can get a few thoughts that remind everyone about "what's really going on in the world"...

...Stephen Roach, had this to say... "The American consumer is dead and this is a wake up call for the Chinese & Asian export industry."

...guy from China that's a "think tank" guy... His name is Yu Yongding, and he had this to say... "I have tremendous doubts about US households to finance the budget deficit." and... "Why are people still so confident in the strength of the dollar? It's a myth!"

... Remember... the IMF wanting to issue their own "global currency"? Well... Zhu Min Bank of China had this to say... "IMF should provide stable reserve currency regardless of format. Very volatile reserve currency is difficult for Asia."

The Wall Street Journal had a good story regarding the weak dollar this weekend...WSJ... "The dollar could continue its weeklong decline this week, especially if data on U.S. retail sales show improvement. The dollar hit a nine-month low last week against the euro and a seven-month low against the yen. Investors are moving into higher-yielding currencies such as the yen as the global economic picture brightens."

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